Outcome markets

What an outcome is

An outcome is a fully collateralised contract that settles somewhere in a fixed range. There’s no leverage and no liquidation.

• Two sides, two tokens. Usually Yes and No. At settlement each Yes token becomes settleFraction of the quote token, and each No token becomes 1 − settleFraction. A binary market settles to 1 or 0; a scalar one can settle anywhere in between.
• One merged book. Buying Yes at p is the same order as selling No at 1 − p, so both sides share liquidity.
• Questions. A question groups outcomes where exactly one will settle Yes, such as “who wins”. An extra “other” outcome is created automatically as the fallback.
• Addressing. Outcome side tokens are named # plus 10 × outcome + side (see T2). outcomeMeta lists every outcome and question.

On mainnet on Oct 21, 2026, three venues were deploying markets: out (Outcome, 159 live outcomes), txyz (trade[XYZ] Events, 64) and skew (Skew, 61). There was also Hyperliquid’s own recurring daily BTC market, which has no venue.

Every market comes from a template

Validators vote on templates, and deployers instantiate them. A template fixes the display text, the side names and a set of typed keywords, plus a semanticRestriction that says what markets made from it may mean. A market that contradicts its restriction can get its deployer slashed.

• {"type":"outcomeTemplates"} returns them all: 28 on mainnet and 68 on testnet on Oct 21, 2026. Testnet’s extras are numbered drafts such as binaryPrice6.
• The mainnet templates cover prices, sports, central-bank rate decisions, awards, IPOs and AI model match-ups.
• An instantiated market is named template:<id>. Its description is the keyword values, sorted and joined:

name:        template:binaryPrice
description: perp:BTC|priceDescription:BTC-USDC perp mark|seconds:60|threshold:85734|time:20261005-0600

The four price templates on mainnet:

How a market settles

The venue settles each outcome with an outcomeDeploy action (an L1 action, T3):

{
  "type": "outcomeDeploy",
  "venue": "ab",
  "operation": {
    "settleOutcome": {
      "outcome": 7,
      "settleFraction": "1",
      "details": "",
      "nameAndDescription": ["template:abc", "expiry:20260801-0600|target:100|underlying:ABC"],
      "sideNames": ["template:Over", "template:Under"]
    }
  }
}

• nameAndDescription and sideNames must match the outcome exactly, and details must be empty.
• Outcomes in a question settle to exactly 0 or 1. settleQuestion2 settles every remaining one at once.

To read a result, call {"type":"settledOutcome","outcome":7}. It returns null until the outcome settles, then its settleFraction and the original spec.

What “TWAP” means depends on the venue

The template says “TWAP of {priceDescription}” and stops there. It doesn’t say where the samples come from or how they’re weighted. hyperkeeper has recomputed every mainnet price market since Oct 8, 2026 and compared its answer with each venue’s settlement.

What that taught us:

• Mark and trade prices have no public history. To recompute those markets you have to record the WebSocket feed from before each window opens. Candles are public, but only the most recent 5,000.
• Skew’s trade average is volume-weighted. A time-weighted average of BTC trades missed 2 of Skew’s markets after Oct 13. A volume-weighted one matched all 197.
• Some misses can’t be helped. All four of out’s misses were within 0.25 bp of the threshold. Sampling the mark about once a second can’t separate cases that close.
• Settling fast is a real job. txyz took 14 to 113 minutes. One of Outcome’s priceTouch markets, oil reaching 100, touched at 00:16 UTC on Oct 17 and settled at 06:42 UTC. Both results were knowable within seconds.

Running a venue

• Activate. Send activateOutcomeDeployer with a venue name of 2–4 lower-case letters. The name must be unique, even against HIP-3 DEX names, and it stays reserved forever.
• Stake. Keep the staking requirement for as long as the venue is active. Stake used for HIP-3 doesn’t count twice. The account must use Standard account abstraction.
• Deploy. There’s no gas cost. Instead, a venue may hold at most N active outcomes and deploy M a day; the docs give 10 and 50 for testnet.
• Fees. Each market carries a deployerFeeScale from 0 to 10. Traders pay the base rate times scale + max(scale, 1); the deployer gets the scale part.
• Delegate. setSubDeployers lets another key register markets or settle them for you, only for your venue. A settlement bot should hold just the settleOutcome grant.
• Leave. Deactivating takes at least 183 days and no active outcomes, and it’s permanent.

The deployer-actions page in the docs is still marked testnet-only, though the three venues above deploy and settle on mainnet.